Forecast discussion: After many days of cloudy skies and showers, we finally got a bright, sunny day in Rhode Island. Temperatures were in the upper 70’s, with low humidity. This good weather will last for part of Tuesday, before the heat and humidity return by midweek.
High pressure offshore gave us a gorgeous day of weather in Southern New England. But, the sun will disappear by the late afternoon. A low pressure system along a frontal boundary to our south will move near Nantucket. It will bring a layer of clouds, but should keep some isolated showers over eastern Massachusetts. Also, some patchy fog will develop, due to the dew point temperatures increasing late Tuesday night.
By Wednesday, a cold front moving towards the Great Lakes will be to our west by the afternoon. With the increasing humidity and temperatures, we may see some showers and thunderstorms develop. The precipitation will last into Thursday morning, before high pressure behind the front brings drier air over the region. We will return to sunny, but nearly hot temperatures, on Friday. We will see partial sunshine on Saturday, before a developing low over the Mid-Atlantic brings more showers and thunderstorms during the evening. The precipitation will be scattered on Sunday. The front will move offshore by Monday, but we may still see some isolated showers through the day.
I am still very unsure about the weekend, as the computer models continue to disagree on where the low might go in association to the showers and thunderstorms. One model takes the low further north, allowing us to dry out by Sunday morning. But, the American and European model keep the low moving east, allowing more precipitation in Sunday. For now, I will keep some persistence in the forecast. I see more clouds than sunshine during Saturday morning, with precipitation moving in Saturday afternoon. But, my overall confidence after Friday remains quite low.
In the tropics today, the National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 1000 miles away from the Cape Verde Islands. At this point, it has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. The Eastern Pacific remains quiet.
72 hour forecast:
Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy with fog developing after midnight. I’m expecting a low of 63.
Tuesday: A sunny start to the day, with increasing clouds in the afternoon. We will see a high of 78, with east-southeast winds at 9-12 mph.
Tuesday night: Cloudy skies with an isolated shower possible, especially along the south shore. The low will fall to 63, with northwest winds at 3-6 mph. Patchy fog will re-develop during the overnight.
Wednesday: Partly sunny in the morning, with clouds and developing showers/thunderstorms by the late afternoon. The mercury will rise to 84, with added humidity in the air.
Wednesday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a low of 68.
Thursday: Showers/thunderstorms end in the morning, with some sunshine in the afternoon and a high of 87.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy with a low of 66.
Friday: Mostly sunny and very warm. Highs 86-89, lows 67-70.
Saturday: Partly sunny during the day, with showers/thunderstorms by the late afternoon. Highs 87-90, lows 69-72.
Sunday: Cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 89-92, lows 69-72.
Monday: Partly sunny with possible showers. Highs 87-90, lows 67-70.